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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 5th, 2021–Mar 6th, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

The snowpack is adjusting to a massive new load of snow. Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes. Avoid exposure to cornices and wind-drifted areas.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Weather Forecast

A parade of storms continues through the weekend

Friday night: Overcast, 5-10 cm of snow, moderate southwest winds, freezing level dropping to 800 m. 

Saturday: Mostly cloudy, scattered flurries with up to 5 cm of snow, light southwest wind, freezing level near 1100 m. 

Sunday: Mostly cloudy, 15-25 cm of snow, moderate south wind, freezing level near 1000 m. 

Monday: Partly cloudy, isolated flurries with trace accumulations, light east wind, freezing level near 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, operators reported several small (size 1) storm slab avalanches from ski cuts at treeline and belowtreeline elevations, as well as small natural loose wet avalanches below 1600 m.

Snowpack Summary

Impressive snow totals of 50-80 cm blanketed slopes above 1600 m across the region on Friday. This snow was accompanied by strong south winds, forming touchier slabs on leeward slopes. Massive cornices exist on ridgelines, which can act as triggers on slopes below. A cooling trend over the weekend is expected to settle and strengthen lower elevation slopes that became saturated with rain. 

In isolated areas with a shallower snowpack in the region, a layer of facets, spotty surface hoar, and/or crusts buried in mid-February may still be preserved. There have been no avalanches reported on this layer; however, large triggers, such as an avalanche in motion, cornice fall, or intense loading from snow and wind have the potential to this deeper layer in areas where it may still exist.

The mid and lower snowpack is well settled and strong in most areas.

Terrain and Travel

  • Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
  • Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.