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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 11th, 2021–Mar 12th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Jasper.

Keep in mind the wind slabs that are out there are sitting on top of a weak layer of facets despite the lack of natural activity. If temperatures dramatically increase anytime over the next few days, expect the hazard to rise.

Weather Forecast

Friday will be sun and clouds, no new snow, -5C, light to moderate West winds, and 1700m freezing level. Saturday is expected to be similar, gusting 40km/hr winds, and 2100m freezing level. Sunday and Monday are similar except for higher freezing levels 2200m or more. Models are not agreeing on Sunday and Monday's freezing levels.

Snowpack Summary

High solar input have created crusts and moist snow on solar aspects at TL and below. Expect this condition to increase in elevation with rising freezing levels. SW winds have redistributed the snow pack at TL and ALP. The mid pack is supportive in deep areas but weak in shallow areas where it fails on buried facet layers in test results.

Avalanche Summary

No patrol occurred on Thursday and nothing was reported.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.