Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Mar 12 – 13, 2021
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Archived · expired 6 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
1 · Low
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

Keep in mind the wind slabs that are out there are sitting on top of a weak layer of facets despite the lack of natural activity. If temperatures dramatically increase anytime over the next few days, expect the hazard to rise.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2

    Calmer winds have decreased the reactivity of wind slabs plus their is little snow left to redistribute; however, this condition originally  formed on weak Feb 20th facets. It is prudent to keep this on your radar despite the moderate rating.

  • Loose Wet

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–1.5

    As the mercury slowly rises above 0 and the sun comes out, solar slopes will loose strength. Caution with your timing when traveling on/under these features. Best time to travel is early while its frozen solid.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–3

    Caution in thin facetted snowpack areas where triggering is more likely. This is a low probability but high consequence problem.

Weather Forecast

Friday will be sun and clouds, no new snow, -5C, light to moderate West winds, and 1700m freezing level. Saturday is expected to be similar, gusting 40km/hr winds, and 2100m freezing level. Sunday and Monday are similar except for higher freezing levels 2200m or more. Models are not agreeing on Sunday and Monday's freezing levels.

Snowpack Summary

High solar input have created crusts and moist snow on solar aspects at TL and below. Expect this condition to increase in elevation with rising freezing levels. SW winds have redistributed the snow pack at TL and ALP. The mid pack is supportive in deep areas but weak in shallow areas where it fails on buried facet layers in test results.

Avalanche Summary

No patrol occurred on Thursday and nothing was reported.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Sunday

Regions covered