Avalanche forecast

North Columbia

Mar 23 – 24, 2017Avalanche Canada
View on map
Archived · expired 10 years ago

Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low

Highlights

Tricky conditions persist in the alpine with fresh wind slabs and the continuing possibility of avalanches releasing on deep weak layers. Conservative terrain selection remains highly recommended.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Recent wind has been from a variety of directions and wind slabs should be expected in exposed terrain on all aspects at higher elevations. Cornices on northerly aspects are reported to be large and weak.
  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2–4
    Various persistent weaknesses throughout the snowpack create the potential for large avalanches stepping down to buried weak layers. Sustained sun exposure or heavy triggers like a cornice fall could trigger deep, destructive avalanches.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

On Friday, 10-15 cm of new snow is expected with moderate to strong alpine wind from the southwest and freezing levels reaching around 1500 m in the afternoon. Another 5-10 cm is expected on Saturday with moderate alpine wind from the southwest and freezing levels around 1500 m in the afternoon. Mainly dry and sunny conditions are forecast for Sunday with light alpine wind and afternoon freezing levels reaching upwards of 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday, a natural size 2 slab was observed on a south aspect at 1800 m which was 100 cm thick. Natural sluffing up to size 2 was reported as well as two natural cornice failures. One of these triggered a size 3 slab which released down 200 cm. Ski cutting trigger two size 1.5 wind slabs which were 30-40 cm thick. On Tuesday, a natural cornice release triggered a size 1.5 storm slab on a northwest aspect at 2050 m elevation. On Monday, a natural cornice release triggered a size 3.5 deep persistent slab on a north aspect at 2500 m released on glacier ice and ran to valley bottom. Over the weekend, a widespread avalanche cycle occurred with avalanches up to size 4.5. This included very large cornice releases, avalanches releasing on layers near the base of the snowpack, propagations over 1 km wide, and mature timber being broken. Click here for photos of the recent avalanches.On Friday, wind slabs and cornice are expected to be reactive at higher elevations. We are in a low probability, high consequence scenario for persistent slab avalanches failing on buried weak layers. Click here for more details.

Snowpack Summary

15-25 cm of new snow typically overlies the thick rain crust which formed over the weekend. The crust has been reported as high as 2000 m and has been reported to be supportive to skiers between 1500 and 1900 m. Alpine wind has recently been strong from a variety of directions and has formed wind slabs on all aspects. Large cornices are also reported on northerly aspects in the alpine. The rain crust which formed last week is now down 50-60 cm and generally seems to be well bonded to the surrounding snow. The February weak layers are down 100-150 cm and woke up during the recent storm cycle with many avalanches stepping down. The deep mid-December facet layer and November rain crust both still linger near the bottom of the snowpack and a few avalanches and cornice falls have stepped down to these layers recently resulting in very large avalanches.

Regions covered