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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 14th, 2022–Feb 15th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast Inland.

The likelihood of triggering the late-January weak layer has decreased but it remains reactive to snowpack tests in the north of the region and still may be capable of producing large avalanches in isolated areas.

Watch for thin new wind slab formation in exposed high elevation terrain in the south of the region. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

An offshore ridge of high pressure brings dry conditions with periods of sun. 

Monday night: Mainly cloudy, light to moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 1500 m.

Tuesday: Mainly sunny, light to moderate NW wind, freezing levels around 1500 m. 

Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud, light to moderate NW wind, freezing levels reaching 1500-2000 m. 

Thursday: Cloudy with a chance of flurries, moderate SW-NW wind, freezing levels reaching 1200-1600 m.

Avalanche Summary

On Sunday, several natural cornices were observed in the north of the region, some of which triggered size 1-2 slabs on the slopes below. Around the Coquihalla, some glide slab avalanches were observed. Small loose wet avalanches were also observed from steep sun-exposed slopes throughout the region. 

Snowpack Summary

The new snow has buried a widespread surface crust and wind-affected surfaces in exposed high elevation terrain. The melt-freeze crust is reported to exist on all aspects and elevations except for some of the highest elevation polar aspects in the north of the region which may still hold dry snow. The crust was reported to be undergoing faceting in some areas prior to the snowfall. 

The late-January crust/facet/surface hoar interface is buried down 20-70 cm. This layer was most reactive between 1700 m and 2000 m in the north of the region. While this layer now appears to be dormant in many parts of the region, recent snowpack tests suggest it is still very reactive in a few places in the north of the region and would still be capable of producing large avalanches if triggered.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried persistent weak layers.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.