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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 5th, 2022–Mar 6th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island.

Ongoing wind slab formation is expected on Sunday in exposed terrain at higher elevations due to periods of moderate northerly wind. Use extra caution around cornices and steep south-facing slopes during the heat of the afternoon. 

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations. Uncertainty is due to the speed, direction, or duration of the wind and its effect on the snowpack. Uncertainty is due to the timing or intensity of solar radiation and its effect on the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

A ridge of high pressure brings one more day of dry and sunny conditions for Sunday before conditions change on Monday. 

Saturday Night: Clear, moderate N wind, freezing levels around 2000 m with an inversion.

Sunday: Mainly sunny, moderate to strong N wind, freezing levels reaching as high as 2500 m with an inversion.

Monday: Mainly cloudy with sunny breaks, strong NW wind, freezing levels 1500-1800 m.

Monday night and Tuesday: Periods of light snowfall, moderate to strong NW wind, freezing levels around 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches have been reported since Wednesday. A natural avalanche cycle had occurred during the storm at the beginning of last week. 

Snowpack Summary

A melt-freeze crust is now expected to be capping the snowpack on all aspects to at least 1500 m and on sun-exposed slopes into the alpine. On north aspects at higher elevations, the snow surface may still be dry and crust-free. In exposed terrain at higher elevations, the recent storm snow may be wind-affected and ongoing wind transport is expected due to moderate northerly winds over the weekend. 

A melt-freeze crust from mid-February can be found approximately 80 cm beneath the surface with some spotty surface hoar crystals above. Recent snowpack testing suggests the crust is bonding well to the surrounding snow in some areas. However, this MIN post from Thursday shows a weak bond to the crust in the Mt. Washington area. With several subsequent days of melt-freeze, the bond is assumed to have improved since this observation but it is worth investigating further before committing to avalanche terrain. A strong, well-settled middle and lower snowpack exist below the crust.

Terrain and Travel

  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Minimize exposure to sun-exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.