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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 21st, 2022–Mar 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Columbia.

There's uncertainty in what the warming trend will do to the snowpack, but avalanche danger may increase. Head out with a conservative mindset and dial back your terrain choices until the weather cools.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

MONDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with no precipitation, 20 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -5 C, freezing level 1500 m.

TUESDAY: Cloudy with early-morning snowfall, accumulation 1 to 3 cm, 20 to 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level rising to 2000 m.

WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with afternoon snowfall, accumulation 2 to 5 cm snow above the rain-snow line, 20 to 40 km/h southwest wind, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 2300 m.

THURSDAY: Clear skies with no precipitation, 10 km/h west wind, alpine temperature -5 C.

Avalanche Summary

Many large (size 2 to 3) storm slab, wind slab, and persistent slab avalanches were triggered by riders, naturally, and using explosives on Sunday. The storm and wind slab avalanches occurred within the weekend's storm snow whereas the persistent slabs released on the weak layer described in the Snowpack Summary. The avalanches occurred on all aspects and elevations between 1900 and 2400 m.

Looking forward, similar avalanche activity is expected to continue on Tuesday. There's uncertainty in exactly what the warming weather will do to the snowpack, so adopting a conservative mindset will be important.

Snowpack Summary

A bit of snow and strong wind are forecast for Tuesday along with a warming trend. New wind slabs may form at high elevations. A spring, moist snowpack exists below around 1500 m. There's uncertainty in what the warming will do, but it has the potential of destabilizing the snowpack and triggering avalanches.

A weak layer may be found around 50 to 100 cm deep. The layer consists of surface hoar crystals in treeline terrain in areas sheltered from the wind and otherwise a hard melt-freeze crust associated with weak faceted grains on sun-exposed slopes (i.e., east, south, west). This layer continues to form large avalanches in the region. Check out this blog for more information.

There are presently no deeper concerns.

Terrain and Travel

  • Potential for wide propagation exists, fresh slabs may rest on surface hoar, facets and/or crust.
  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.