Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 10th, 2026–Jan 11th, 2026

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Alpine

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Treeline

Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Jordan, Goat, Gold.

A new storm arriving Sunday will further stress a buried weak layer of surface hoar that has been reactive recently.

Confidence

Moderate

Uncertainty is due to the timing, track, & intensity of the incoming weather system.
We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Avalanche Summary

Last week, widespread avalanche activity size 2 to 3, was observed on a recently buried layer of surface hoar on a variety of aspects at all elevations. Many were triggered by humans, including several remotely triggered from ridgetops or low angle terrain.

As new snow load accumulates over this layer, a resurgence in this kind of avalanche activity can be expected.

Snowpack Summary

By the end of the day Sunday, up to 25 cm of new snow is forecast to accumulate over settling snow from last week. The new snow arrives with wind, loading lee features at exposed elevations.

A problematic layer of surface hoar is now buried 70 to 100 cm deep. Widespread avalanche activity was observed on this layer over the past week.

The prominent mid-December crust is buried 100 to 150cm deep, and is present up to 2300 m. Triggering this layer is considered unlikely, except with large loads or in thin snowpack areas.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night
Mostly cloudy. 3 to 5 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -6 °C. Freezing level 800 m.

Sunday
Mostly cloudy. 10 to 25 cm of snow. 30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -5 °C. Freezing level 900 m.

Monday
Mostly cloudy. 15 to 30 cm of snow. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -2 °C. Freezing level 1500 m.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 5 to 15 mm of rain at treeline. 50 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 1 °C. Freezing level 2200 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Watch for fresh storm slabs building throughout the day.
Fresh snow rests on a problematic persistent slab, don't let good riding lure you into complacency.
Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried surface hoar.
As the storm slab problem worsens, the easy solution is to choose more conservative terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.