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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 9th, 2023–Feb 10th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

The peak of our next storm will cause a spike in avalanche hazard Friday morning.

With lots of recent snow available for entrainment, natural avalanches could run far and fast, limit your overhead exposure.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A cycle of natural avalanches occurred during Tuesdays storm, ranging from size 2-3.5. Most notably, there was a natural size 3.5 reported out of the Grizzly path in Connaught, this avalanche ran over the standard skin track.

Avalanche control on Tuesday was effective in producing widespread avalanches throughout the park, up to size 3.5, failing in the recent storm snow with large powder components.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 45cm of storm snow has fallen in the past week, with another 15-20cm forecast to fall by Friday evening. Combine this with warm temps and strong SW winds, and you have the perfect recipe for reactive storm slabs.

The mid-snowpack is generally well bonded rounded grains.

The basal Nov 17 deep persistent weak layer has not produced any slab avalanches in GNP for a couple of weeks now, but persists in many places as faceted crystals - these are accompanied by a decomposing crust in some locations.

Weather Summary

Unsettled weather continues into the weekend, with a cold front giving steady snowfall Friday.

Tonight: Cloudy w/flurries (5-10cm), Alpine low -7°C, moderate SW ridgetop winds.

Friday: Snow (5-10cm). Alpine High -7°C. Moderate gusting extreme SW ridgetop winds.

Sat: Cloudy with isolated flurries. Low -9°C, High -8°C. Moderate SW wind.

Sun: Cloudy with flurries (5-10cm). Low -9°C, High -6°C. Light SW wind.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Caution around slopes that are exposed to cornices overhead.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.