Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2023–Feb 16th, 2023

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Alpine

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Chic-Choc Mountains, Littoral, Murdochville.

A mix of precipitation is expected in the mountains and precipitation rates are uncertain.

Know how to adapt your objectives to the conditions encountered in the mountains, especially if the amount of snow is greater than anticipated

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche observed or reported.

Thanks for contributing to the collection of this valuable data by sharing with other users on the Mountain Information Network or by writing to us directly at [email protected].

Snowpack Summary

There is some uncertainty about the precipitation that will fall in the mountains on Thursday morning. In areas protected from the wind, we can expect 4 to 8 cm of new wet snow on top of the 15 to 20 cm of snow received in the last week. Below the treeline, the snowpack depth on the January 18 crust is about 50-60 cm. In the alpine, strong southwest winds will have blown this snow onto the leeward slopes. These accumulations will lie directly on the crust, or on surfaces previously hardened by the wind. A great deal of spatial variability can be expected. Travel will remain very difficult. In general, the height of the snow cover will vary from 70 to 90 cm in the valley to 100 to 150 cm in the mid-mountains.

Weather Summary

Forecast for the Chic-Chocs ridges and summits.

Synopsis: Passage of a major low pressure system north of the Chic-Chocs bringing warm temperatures and possibly mixed precipitation, followed by a cold front on Friday. Wednesday night and overnight: Snow, 4 to 8 cm. Freezing rain possible. Wind southwest, 60 to 80 km/h. High -2. Freezing level at 500 m. Thursday: Rain or freezing rain early in the day, then clearing in the afternoon. Wind west, 50 to 60 km/h. Maximum 1. Freezing level at 750 m. Friday: Snow, 2 to 5 cm. Wind north, 10 to 30 km/h. High -14. Saturday: Sunny. Wind west, 30 to 50 km/h. High -10.For more details, check the Alpine Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

Carefully evaluate steep lines for wind slabs.
Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.
As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.