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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 18th, 2023–Feb 19th, 2023

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos, Blue River, Clearwater, McBride, Premier, Quesnel, Sugarbowl, Clemina, North Monashee, Renshaw, Robson.

Forecast heavy snow and wind Saturday night and into Sunday will build touchy storm slabs. Large, natural avalanches are expected at all elevations.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow or wind.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Forecast heavy snow and wind on Sunday will build reactive storm slabs. Large, natural avalanches are expected at all elevations.

Naturally triggered storm slabs were reported at treeline and above near Blue River on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

5-15 cm of new snow on Friday night brings recent snowfall totals to 40-50 cm. The recent snow is settling into storm slabs that will be most reactive where either wind has stiffened the snow or they overlie a layer of recently buried surface hoar.

Forecast heavy snow and wind on Sunday will build reactive storm slabs. Large, natural avalanches are expected at all elevations.

The mid-pack is showing signs of strengthening. A surface hoar layer down roughly 60 to 80 cm has not produced avalanches recently but can still be found in isolated terrain features specifically sheltered, treeline, and upper below treeline.

The lower snowpack is composed of large and weak facets from November located near the base of the snowpack. Additional load or step-down avalanches over the next few days may wake this layer up.

Weather Summary

Saturday night

Snow; 10-20 cm / Moderate west ridgetop wind / Low -8 °C / Freezing level valley bottom.

Sunday

Snow; 20-30 cm; another 5-10 cm Sunday night / Strong west ridgetop wind / High 0 °C / Freezing level 1400 m.

Monday

Mix of sun and cloud / Light northwest ridgetop wind / High of -5 °C / Freezing level valley bottom.

Tuesday

Mix of sun and cloud / Light east ridgetop wind / High of -13 °C / Freezing level valley bottom.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy snowfall.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.
  • Storm slab size and sensitivity to triggering will likely increase through the day.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.