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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2024–Mar 16th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Avoid being in or under avalanche terrain.

Intense spring sun and rising temperatures have increased the risk of large natural and rider-triggered avalanches.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

On Wednesday and Thursday, several large natural, explosive, and rider-triggered avalanches occurred in the Fernie area.

Most notably, one skier was buried in a large avalanche that they triggered off Mt.Fernie. Luckily they were able to self-rescue, and everyone is ok.

Looking forward, we expect that sun and warm temperatures will create the potential for widespread, large, natural and rider-triggered avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

During the day, frozen and crusty surface snow will melt and turn moist or slushy due to high freezing levels combined with intense sun. This will be especially prevalent on sunny slopes and at lower elevations. This will cause the avalanche hazard to rise as the day warms. High-elevation shady north-facing slopes may still have some dry snow.

Cornices are currently large and looming, and will become more unstable during periods of warming. See photo below.

80-150 cm below the snow surface, a widespread crust with weak facets overtop remains a concerning layer for human triggering.

The snowpack below the crust is generally strong.

Weather Summary

Friday Night

Mostly clear. No new snow expected. 5 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature around 0 °C. Freezing level around 2800 m with a temperature inversion below 1500 m.

Saturday

Sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 2800 m. Treeline high around 8 °C.

Sunday

Sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 3500 m. Treeline high around 9 °C.

Monday

Mostly sunny. No new snow expected. 10 km/h variable ridgetop wind. Freezing level rising to 3200 m. Treeline high around 8 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
  • Avoid runout zones of avalanche paths on solar aspects, avalanches could run full-path if triggered.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.
  • Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.