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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2024–Mar 15th, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

Kootenay Boundary, Bonnington, Grohman, Kootenay Pass, Norns, Rossland, Ymir, Crawford, Moyie, St. Mary, Kokanee, Valhalla.

Avoid being in or under avalanche terrain.

Intense spring sun and rising temperatures are making large natural avalanches likely.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

On wednesday, natural and human triggered avalanche activity in the recent storm snow continued to be reported. Notable was a large (size 3) natural avalanche southeast of Nelson on a north aspect in the alpine, see photo for more details. Also, see this MIN report for details of a large avalanche west of Kimberly.

Destructive, full path avalanches have been less common in the last week, but looking forward to a warm, sunny weekend, we expect them to become frequent again.

Snowpack Summary

With sunny skies and rising freezing levels, expect to see deeper wet snow on the surface as the day goes on. 40-60 cm of recent snow is currently not bonding well with firm surfaces and weak feathery crystals underneath. Forecasting warm temperatures will likely make this problem worse in the short term.

A widespread crust with weak facets above is buried 120-160 cm deep and remains a very concerning layer for human triggering. While recent reports suggest this layer was becoming harder to trigger, we expect it will become more active again as temperatures rise.

The snowpack below the crust is generally strong.

Weather Summary

Any night-time cooling will be restricted to near valley bottom, the alpine will stay well above 0 °C.

Thursday Night

Clear. No new snow expected. Light northwest ridgetop wind. Freezing levels rise to 2700 m, with treeline high around 2 °C.

Friday

Sunny. No new snow expected. Light north or northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing levels rise to 3100 m, with treeline high around 6 °C.

Saturday

Sunny. No new snow expected. Light northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 3200 m, with treeline high around 7 °C.

Sunday

Sunny. No new snow expected. Light southeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level around 3200 m, with treeline high around 7 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
  • Cornices become weak with daytime heating or solar exposure.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.