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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 29th, 2024–Mar 1st, 2024

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, South Rockies, Akamina, Flathead, Lizard, Bull, Crowsnest North, Crowsnest South, Elkford East, Elkford West.

Human triggering large avalanches is very likely. Travel in or near any consequential avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

Explosives and riders triggered many small to large (size 1 to 2) storm and wind slabs on Wednesday, primarily out of alpine terrain. They were mostly 20 to 50 cm deep.

A fatal avalanche incident occurred on Saturday near Gardiner Creek. It is believed that it occurred on the early-February layer described in the Snowpack Summary. You can read more details here.

Looking forward, it remains likely that humans could trigger high-consequence slab avalanches.

Snowpack Summary

Substantial snowfall associated with strong southwest wind and warming quickly built storm slabs that will likely remain very touchy. These slabs are loading weak faceted snow, surface hoar in wind-sheltered terrain, and a hard melt-freeze crust on sun-exposed slopes.

A widespread crust that formed in early February is buried around 80 to 120 cm deep. Weak faceted grains may be found above the crust, which is a recipe for high-consequence avalanches.

The remainder of the snowpack is generally settled.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -9 °C.

Friday

Cloudy with 5 to 10 cm of snow. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -8 °C.

Saturday

Mostly cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow. 20 km/h east ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -13 °C.

Sunday

Mostly cloudy with 2 to 5 cm of snow. 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature -10 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Travel in alpine terrain is not recommended.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, avalanches may run surprisingly far.
  • Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
  • Persistent slabs have potential to pull back to lower angle terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.