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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 26th, 2025–Mar 27th, 2025

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Rain and positive temperatures high into the alpine are creating very dangerous avalanche conditions.

Large natural avalanches are likely & human triggered avalanches are very likely.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A widespread natural avalanche cycle is underway at the time of writing this bulletin. Naturals up to size 4 are running to valley bottom.

Natural activity is expected to continue with the forecasted rain and overnight temps remaining above zero in the alpine.

Neighboring regions have reported serious incidents and large avalanches. Similar conditions are expected in Rogers pass as we see the same warming trend with rain.

Snowpack Summary

30mm of rain/wet snow has destabilized the upper snowpack.

60cm of recent snow sits on-top of the March 5th persistent weak layer (PWL).

The March 5 PWL consists of a crust &/or surface hoar and is down 60-120cm. There is concern that wet avalanches will step down to this PWL and may entrain more snow at lower elevations.

Additional PWL's from Jan/Feb are now buried 140-190cm deep.

Weather Summary

Freezing levels continue to stay near mountain top overnight through Thursday.

Tonight: 11mm of rain. Alpine low 3°C. Wind SE 15-25km/hr. Freezing Level (FZL) 2500m

Thurs: Cloudy w/ scattered flurries. 4cm. Wind SW 10-45km/hr. FZL 2800m

Friday: Snow, 15cm. Alpine High -1°C. SW wind 10-30km/hr. FZL 1900m

Sat: Cloudy w/ sunny periods. Trace precip. Alpine high of -2°C. SW wind 10-30km/hr. FZL 1800m

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain with no overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
  • Wet avalanche activity may step down to deeply buried persistent weak layers at lower elevations.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.

Wet Slabs

Wet Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) that is generally moist or wet when the flow of liquid water weakens the bond between the slab and the surface below (snow or ground). They often occur during prolonged warming events and/or rain-on-snow events. Wet Slabs can be very unpredictable and destructive.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.