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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 27th, 2025–Feb 28th, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard, Moyie.

Let two words from the field team guide your terrain selection during the warmup: scary snowpack. It's time to minimize your exposure to avalanche terrain and overhead hazards.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

A mix of storm, wind, and persistent slab avalanches were observed in the Fernie area Wednesday, from both natural and artificial triggers. They mainly occurred in north-facing alpine terrain and reached size 2.5 with crowns typically ranging from 30 to 50 cm.

A lone natural size 3 deep persistent slab was also observed, apparently failing at the base of the snowpack. It's an occurrence that suggests the possibility of isolated full-depth releases during the warmup.

Snowpack Summary

A melt-freeze crust or moist snow now glazes the surface on solar aspects and, by Friday, below about 2000 m. The depth of affected snow should increase in the coming days, and crust recovery may be weak. This process will affect 30 to 60 cm of settling recent snow that is wind-affected in alpine. About half overlies a crust formed early in the storm. It otherwise overlies faceted snow.

A weak layer of preserved surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 80 to 130 cm deep. This weak layer is expected to stay reactive as warming tests the snowpack. The lower snowpack is generally well-settled, however a lone deep persistent slab observed Wednesday suggests isolated deep releases may occur during the warmup.

Weather Summary

Thursday Night

Becoming cloudy. 20 to 40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, easing. Freezing level falling from 2000 m to 1500 m.

Friday

Mostly sunny. 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level to 2300 m. Treeline temperature 4 °C.

Saturday

Sunny. 10 to 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level to 3000 m, rising overnight. Treeline temperature 5 °C.

Sunday

Sunny. 0 to 5 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level 2700 m - 3200 m. Treeline temperature 7 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind-affected terrain.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead hazards when solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.