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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 1st, 2025–Mar 2nd, 2025

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead, Flathead, Lizard, Moyie.

High overnight freezing levels and balmy daytime warming should keep persistent slabs near their tipping point Sunday. It will be a great day to soak up the sun in low consequence terrain.

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

We have an initial report of a natural size 3 avalanche in the Little Sand area on Friday, likely another persistent slab.

The field team saw fresh persistent slabs in Corbin Thursday, part of a pattern of persistent slab activity that was mixed with storm instabilities earlier in the week. Activity has been on a range of aspects, mainly in alpine.

A natural size 3 deep persistent slab was also seen Wednesday, suggesting isolated deep releases may occur during the warmup.

Snowpack Summary

A melt-freeze crust or moist snow likely makes up the surface on all but high elevation north aspects. High overnight freezing levels mean crust recovery may be weak. This crust tops the upper part of 30 to 60 cm of settling recent snow that is wind-affected in alpine. About half of this overlies a crust formed early in the storm. It otherwise overlies faceted snow.

A weak layer of preserved surface hoar or facets from late January is buried 80 to 130 cm deep. This weak layer is expected to remain reactive for the duration of the warmup. The lower snowpack is generally well-settled, however a lone deep persistent slab observed Wednesday suggests isolated deep releases may occur during the warmup.

Weather Summary

Saturday Night

Clear. 10 - 20 km/h southwest ridgetop wind, easing. Freezing level peaking at 3400 m.

Sunday

Sunny. 0 - 5 km/h west ridgetop wind shifting northeast late in the day. Freezing level falling from 3300 m to 2700 m. Treeline temperature 7 °C.

Monday

Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing less than 5 cm of new snow, easing overnight. 20 - 30 km/h northeast ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1600 m. Treeline temperature around 0 °C.

Tuesday

Sunny. 5 - 10 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing level 1700 m. Treeline temperature around 0 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to buried weak layers.
  • Even brief periods of direct sun could produce natural avalanches.
  • Avoid exposure to overhead hazards when solar radiation is strong.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.