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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 7th, 2021–Jan 8th, 2021

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Cariboos.

Though avalanche danger may be decreasing, the potential exists to trigger persistent slab avalanches. While these avalanches are becoming less likely, the consequences are high. The uncertainty associated with complex snowpacks is best managed with conservative terrain choices.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that deep persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT - Cloudy with clear periods / light to moderate south wind / alpine low temperature near -8 

FRIDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / moderate to strong south wind / alpine high temperature near -5 

SATURDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light south wind / alpine high temperature near -7 

SUNDAY - A mix of sun and cloud / light south wind / alpine high temperature near -6

Avalanche Summary

Wind slabs are likely widespread in lee terrain in the alpine and open treeline areas and they may be reactive to human triggering. 

Although the persistent slab problem is trending towards being less reactive, the possibility still exists to trigger it, and these avalanches would likely be large.

Field observations in this region are limited. If you get out, please consider submitting your observations to the Mountain Information Network. 

Snowpack Summary

20-50 cm of recent fresh snow now reportedly sits on a weak layer of surface hoar in many areas. It is suspected that his layer is most prevalent at treeline and below treeline. Recent strong winds have redistributed the storm snow and created wind slabs in lee terrain, especially at higher elevations.

A persistent weak layer is now down about 70-100 cm. The distribution of this layer is variable. In some areas, it's surface hoar and/or a crust. In other areas, this layer may be difficult to find, if it exists at all. This layer has been reported as very prevalent in areas near Valemount.

There is a prominent crust near the base of the snowpack. This crust likely has weak facets above and/or below it. There have been no recent avalanches reported on this layer, but would be most likely to trigger in steep, shallow, rocky terrain, with a thin to thick snowpack.

Terrain and Travel

  • Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
  • Avoid freshly wind loaded terrain features.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
  • Avoid open slopes and convex rolls at and below treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.