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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 31st, 2020–Jan 1st, 2021

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.

Regions

South Coast.

Happy New Year!

A wet and windy storm means that a widespread avalanche cycle is expected. Avoid avalanche terrain, including overhead hazard.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT - Wet snow mixed with rain, 20-40 cm/mm / southwest wind, 40-60 km/h, gusting to 80 km/h / alpine low temperature near 0 / snow level 900 m

FRIDAY - Wet snow and rain, 30-50 cm/mm, with another 15-30 cm/mm overnight / southwest wind 60-80 km/h / alpine high temperature near 2 / snow level 1400 m

SATURDAY - Wet snow and rain, 40-80 cm/mm, with another 70-90 cm/mm overnight / southwest winds 70-90 km/hr / alpine high temperature near 2 / snow level 1200 m

SUNDAY - Snow, 15-30 cm / west wind, 40-60 km/h / alpine high temperature near 0 / snow level 900 m

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity is expected to be widespread on Friday.

At the time of publishing, there were a few size 1-2 explosives triggered avalanches reported in the North Shore mountains on Thursday.

There were numerous avalanches up to size 1.5 reported in the North Shore mountains during the storm on Wednesday. It is likely that a widespread natural avalanche cycle occurred throughout the region on Wednesday as well, especially at higher elevations.

Many thanks for all of the great MIN report submissions on Wednesday!

Snowpack Summary

Depending on elevation, the region may see up to 90 cm of snow, or 90 mm of rain between Thursday night and Friday afternoon. 

This will bring recent fresh snow amounts to as much as 150 cm, and the new snow sits on a crust in many areas, and may also sit on surface hoar in some places. 

Around 100-200 cm of snow now overlies a hard melt-freeze crust up to around 1500 m.

The remainder of the snowpack is well-settled.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Avoid avalanche terrain during periods of heavy rain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.