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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 4th, 2012–Jan 6th, 2012

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Cariboos.

Confidence

Good - -1

Weather Forecast

Light snowfall (around 5 cm) is expected on Thursday with the passage of a cold front across the region. Things should dry up by midday and especially eastern areas will see clearing skies. Freezing levels will be at valley bottom and winds will be gusty from the northwest. On Friday ridging continues, keeping temperatures cool, giving some bright spells and maintaining moderate northwesterly winds. Dry conditions should persist into Saturday, although there is a possibility of some precipitation (maybe even freezing rain) in this area.

Avalanche Summary

A size 2 cornice release was reported from just south of this region on a north aspect around 2000m from Wednesday.

Snowpack Summary

Total snowpack depths are approximately 250 cm at treeline. Moderate amounts of new snow fell overnight Tuesday and into Wednesday morning. Strong winds have redistributed some of this snow into the classic lee areas in exposed terrain-behind ridgelines, summits and exposed rolls and features at alpine elevations. Below around 1700m there is likely now a rain crust. A surface hoar/facet/crust interface from mid-December is well preserved and acting as a persistent weak layer. This is buried 100 to 150 cm deep and has been reactive to natural and human triggers. The increased depth is beginning to make triggering more difficult but bear in mind it also increases the size of anything that does go on this layer, which in turn increases the consequences.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.