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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2022–Jan 7th, 2022

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

A hefty storm on Thursday night is anticipated to rapidly form slabs up high and rain down low. The snowpack will likely be fragile on Friday.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

THURSDAY NIGHT: Cloudy with snow and rain, accumulation 50 to 70 cm above around 1000 m and rain below, 30 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature 0 C, freezing level 1200 m.

FRIDAY: Early-morning snow and rain then clear skies, accumulation 5 to 10 cm above around 1000 m and rain below, 50 km/h west wind, treeline temperature 0 C dropping to -5 C over the day, freezing level 1200 m dropping to 300 m over the day.

SATURDAY: Cloudy with snowfall, accumulation 10 cm, 40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperature -4 C.

SUNDAY: Early-morning snowfall then clear skies, accumulation 10 cm, 30 km/h south wind, treeline temperature 3 C, freezing level rising to 2300 m.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed on Wednesday. We anticipate that widespread avalanche activity will result from Thursday night's rapid snow and rain loading, and that the resulting snow will be triggerable on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

50 to 70 cm of snow is forecast for Thursday night, with the snow-rain line expected to be around 1000 m. Above the snow-rain line, storm slabs are expected to rapidly form. Below, rain will soak the snowpack. This precipitation will test the layers buried on January 1, which include a hard melt-freeze crust that may sit above sugary faceted grains formed during the cold spell in late December.

The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.
  • The first few hours of rain will likely be the most dangerous period.
  • Dial back your terrain choices if you are seeing more than 30 cm of new snow.
  • Watch for newly formed and reactive wind slabs as you transition into wind affected terrain.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.