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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 13th, 2022–Jan 16th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Waterton Lakes.

Akamina Parkway projected to open friday morning following snow removal.

Spring...??? Below treeline skiing will be challenging on refrozen surfaces.

Weather Forecast

Friday: Cloudy with isolated flurries and an alpine high of -4. Moderate winds from the SW, FL 1400m. A strong inversion is forecast above 2400m

Saturday: Cloudy with isolated flurries 4cm, alpine high -5. Winds moderate SW, FL valley bottom.

Sunday: Cloudy with isolated flurries, alpine high -9. Winds moderate SW, FL valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow to 2000m beginning to refreeze in N aspects. Isothermal snow to ground in thin areas. Above 2000m hard windslabs up to 150cm deep overlie a well settled midpack. Facets above Dec 4 crust down 150-200 cm. A 20-60 cm thick Nov crust complex completes the snowpack to ground.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche cycle with several avalanches size 1-3 yesterday. One size 4 avalanche on Mt Bertha that buried the hiking trail in 10m of debris ocured on sunday Jan 09. Suspect this large result initiated on Dec 4 crust. Thanks to everyone posting on the Mountain Information Network, keep up the great work, we really do read them.

Confidence

Due to the number and quality of field observations

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.