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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 21st, 2022–Jan 22nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Some models show a freezing level up to 2200m on Saturday with clear skies. This rapid change may awaken the December persistent layer down 1m on average. Pay close attention to temperatures and be prepared to bail if it gets to hot. 

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to difficult to forecast freezing levels.

Weather Forecast

Warmer air is forecast to move into the region tomorrow with freezing levels forecast to climb to around 2200m according to some models. The weather is also forecast to be clear so we can expect the sun will also play a role on south facing feature. Winds will continue out of the SW in the moderate range. Pay close attention to temperature and aspect that you are travelling on or under. Cornices may be an issue with daytime warming also. 

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed on Friday. 

Snowpack Summary

10-15cm of low density snow is overlying a hard wind affected surface that developed during the previous 10 days of strong winds. Good skiing is being found riding on the crust but you have to be very thoughful about where the wind has been in order to have a good trip down. Up tracking can be a challenge in some areas. Watch for thin windslabs in the upper snowpack along ridgelines and be thinking about wide propagations of the underlying stiff windslab if you are able to trigger it from a thinner snowpack area. At 2200m on Thursday field teams were able to locate the 1202CR down 100cm with a distinct layer of facets over the crust. Moderate sudden collapses were observed on this layer making us choose more supported and mellow terrain. We havent seen much avalanche activity on this layer but we dont want people to have it come out of your mind. Dig and look and be curious with the snowpack. With the warm temps on Saturday steep solar slopes may begin to wake up so keep an eye on temperature and if you feel the snow start to get wet or moist, think about whats overhead and what your on.  

Terrain and Travel

  • Be aware that wet activity at low elevations is a classic situation for step-down failures in deeply buried persistent weak layers.
  • Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
  • Watch for areas of hard wind slab on alpine features.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.