Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 3rd, 2022–Jan 4th, 2022

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Alpine

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Treeline

Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Below Treeline

Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Incremental loading on a sugary weak layer can add up to a touchy slab at Alpine and Treeline elevations.

Tree wells and terrain traps are real concerns with all the loose snow.

Weather Forecast

Moisture from the Pacific is mixing with the cold air from the north, creating low density powder.

Tonight: Cloudy, trace snow, low -16*C, mod SW winds

Tues: Cloudy with mix of sun/cloud, Alp high -14*C, light S wind

Wed: Cloudy with flurries, Alp high -15*C, light SW winds

Thurs: Flurries, 12cm, Alp high -11*C, light S winds

Snowpack Summary

A new storm slab of ~30cm low-density snow is bonding poorly to the underlying loose, faceted snow from the recent cold temps. Wind slab exists in the alpine along ridge crests and open features down into tree line. The Dec 1 crust is buried 80-130cm, with faceted snow above and below it (especially in shallow areas).

Avalanche Summary

Numerous avalanches off of the steep paths of Mt. Tupper and Mt. MacDonald, up to size 3 from wind loaded, steep, confined terrain.

There is a LOT of loose snow to be transported by the wind! If wind values spike, expect a natural avalanche cycle.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.