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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 29th, 2022–Jan 30th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Jasper.

New snow on arriving midday Sunday with strong SW wind will increase our wind slab hazard. Pay attention to the changing conditions and avoid wind loaded areas.

Good skiing can still be found in protected areas below tree line.

Weather Forecast

Sunday: Flurries with 10cm snow on the Icefields parkway.

Alpine High -7 C.

Ridge wind SW 15-35 km/hr

Freezing level valley bottom.

Monday: Mainly Cloudy with scattered flurries.

Precipitation: 4cm with potential for higher amounts on the eastern side of the range.

Alpine High -7 C

Wind North - West 15 km/h gusting 45km/h.

Tuesday: isolated flurries

Snowpack Summary

Surface condition extremely variable with widespread wind effect & scouring in alpine from strong-extreme SW wind. Wind slab in specific areas tree line & above. A thin sun crust exists on steep solar aspects up to 2300m. The midpack has two layers of concern. The dec 26 facet layer is buried 20-30cm down with a weak crust 40-60cm below 1950m.

Avalanche Summary

A size 3 natural avalanche occurred on the West aspect of Mt. Wilson at approx. 2300m around Jan 27. We suspect this was a persistent slab with increased sensitivity due to strong solar input.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.