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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2022–Jan 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Jasper.

Good skiing has been harder and harder to find. Our field team's pick for these knee testing times is the Boundary lake area.Look out for a weak facet layer in the upper snowpack, on which wind slab, and persistent slab could fail.

Weather Forecast

Monday: Flurries. Accumulation: 11 cm. Alpine temperature: High -3 C. Ridge wind west: 20 km/h gusting to 60 km/h. Freezing level: 1700 metres.Tuesday: Sunny with cloudy periods. Precipitation: Nil. Alpine temperature: Low -16 C, High -10 C. Ridge wind northwest: 10-20 km/h. Freezing level at valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

The upper snowpack is settling with above seasonal temperatures. The top 40 cm is comprised of Wind Slabs particularly in open areas above Tree Line. The mid snowpack is faceted with a persistent weak layer buried 40-70cm down. Basal facets and depth hoar can be found at the base of snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Sunday Icefields patrol had fair visibility and no new naturals were noted.  Our nearest neighbors reporting small wind slab and persistent slab results from their explosives control in the Alpine. Jan 13th explosives control resulted in several wind and persistent slab avalanches up to size 2.5.

Confidence

Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.