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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 16th, 2022–Jan 17th, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Wet snow, rain and freezing level up to 1700 m will continue to weaken the snowpack and cornices that may have become heavy and fragile.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how the snowpack will react to the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

An advancing Pacific system will begin impacting the south coast ranges Monday morning with wet snow and rain throughout the day.

SUNDAY NIGHT: Mainly cloudy, no precipitation, 40-60 km/h westerly winds, low treeline temperature +4 C with freezing level at 2000 m.

MONDAY: Rain, accumulation 10-15 mm, 40-60 km/h westerly winds, high treeline temperature +2 C with freezing level going down to 1700 m.

TUESDAY: Mainly cloudy with isolated wet flurries, accumulation 1-3 cm, 5-10 km/h westerly winds, high treeline temperature 0 C with freezing level around 1300 m.

WEDNESDAY: Wet snow mixed with rain, accumulation 3-5 cm, 10-20 km/h southwesterly winds, high treeline temperature -1 C with freezing level around 1000 m.

Avalanche Summary

A natural avalanche cycle occurred up to size 3, from the heavy precipitation and rising temperatures on Tuesday and Wednesday. Following the storm, avalanche activity has tapered off over the weekend.

If you head out into the mountains please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

Snowpack Summary

Heavy rain and warm temperatures have saturated the surface snow to around 2100 m, forming a surface crust as temperatures cool the wet snow. Below this, snow is moist down 25-50 cm where several previous crusts sit that are currently breaking down. 

Around 150 to 200 cm deep, sugary faceted grains may sit above a melt freeze crust, that formed during the cold spell in late December. Reports suggest that the snowpack may be bonding well to these layers. The middle and base of the snowpack are strong, consisting of well-bonded snow and various hard melt-freeze crusts.

Terrain and Travel

  • Large cornice falls are dangerous on their own.
  • Pay attention to cornices and give them a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.
  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.

Problems

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.