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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 1st, 2022–Feb 2nd, 2022

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Northwest Coastal.

Storm slabs will build through the day and likely be touchier by early afternoon. Deeper and stiffer slabs will exist on leeward slopes and behind terrain features. If less than 25 cm of snow falls the hazard may stay MODERATE.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday Night: 10-15 cm of new snow with strong southwest winds at ridgetop. Freezing levels valley bottom.

Wednesday: Another 10 cm of snow with strong southwest wind at ridgetop. Alpine temperatures near -4. Freezing levels 800 m.

Thursday/ Friday: More snow 10-15 cm on Thursday and up to 20 cm on Friday with strong southwest wind at ridgetop. Average alpine temperature near -5 and freezing levels 1200 m. 

Avalanche Summary

Evidence of several wind slabs and natural cornice failures up to size 1.5 in the past 24 hours. No new avalanche observations by Tuesday afternoon. 

With new snow and wind forecast, storm slabs and wind slabs will build through the day and likely be reactive. 

Snowpack Summary

Forecast new snow and wind will build fresh storm slabs at upper elevations adding to the 20-30 cm that currently overlies a variety of surfaces that formed during the end of January. This interface is made up of a crust, facets, and surface hoar. The crust can be found at or below treeline as well as on south-facing terrain in the alpine. In isolated sheltered terrain at treeline surface hoar has formed along with facets above this crust. Where a crust did not form facets will likely be found.

The January 19th surface hoar layer can still be found down 30 to 50 at treeline and above in sheltered terrain. Recent reports indicate that it is becoming less of a concern. 

Terrain and Travel

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow and wind.
  • Storm snow and wind is forming touchy slabs. Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline.
  • Wind slabs may be poorly bonded to the underlying crust.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.