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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 2nd, 2026–Feb 3rd, 2026

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Vancouver Island, East Island, North Island, South Island, West Island.

Precipitation tapers but freezing levels are rising, likely keeping wet loose avalanches active.

Greatest concern is for higher elevations, where rain may saturate the recent storm snow.

Confidence

Moderate

  • We are uncertain due to variable freezing levels.

Avalanche Summary

A MIN report from Sunday in the Arrowsmith area reported a natural wet avalanche provides evidence that the saturated upper snowpack still needs time to settle.

Snowpack Summary

A saturated upper snowpack overlies a hard crust.

The mid/lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.

Average treeline snow depth is 100 to 140 cm, and the snowpack tapers rapidly with elevation.

Weather Summary

Monday Night
Cloudy. 1 to 4 mm of rain at treeline. 30 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 4 °C. Freezing level 2200 m.

Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 4 to 5 mm of rain at treeline. 50 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 5 °C. Freezing level 2400 m.

Wednesday
Mix of sun and clouds. 1 mm of rain at treeline. 60 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 8 °C. Freezing level 2900 m.

Thursday
Mostly sunny. 30 km/h south ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 9 °C. Freezing level 2900 m.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling, and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
  • Loose avalanches may start small, but they can grow and push you into dangerous terrain.
  • Keep in mind that the high density of wet avalanches can make them destructive.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.