Continued warm temperatures will make the snow surface moist and primed for loose wet avalanches on steep terrain.
Confidence
Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain
Weather Forecast
Monday: Cloud building through the day. Rain starting in the evening. Freezing level 2600m. Moderate southeasterly winds.Tuesday: up to 20mm rain, turning to snow right near mountaintop on the North Shore mountains and at elevations above 1500m near Squamish. Strong southeasterly winds.Wednesday: Snow above 1000m with amounts of around 15cm. Strong southerly winds.
Avalanche Summary
While temperatures remain high, loose wet avalanches are the most likely, as well as the potential for slab avalanches on steep slopes above 1500 m near Squamish.
Snowpack Summary
Very warm temperatures are making the snow surface moist and primed for loose wet avalanches. Previously, rain soaked into the snow at elevations below 1300 m. Only the peaks of the North Shore mountains and higher terrain near Squamish escaped this rain. At these upper elevations, the recent storm slab may remain reactive, particularly to warming-triggered avalanches, as there is a possibility that cold snow became trapped below the more recent dense slab. About 60cm below the surface you'll find a thick melt-freeze crust that formed as a result of heavy rain about a week ago. The bond at this interface will likely gain strength over time; however, professionals are monitoring this layer as it has the potential to produce large avalanches in isolated terrain.The snowpack depth at 1000 m is about 150 cm and many early season hazards are still present.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.