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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 6th, 2018–Jan 7th, 2018

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Cariboos.

New snow is falling on numerous weak layers. As the snow gains slab properties, both natural and human-triggered avalanches will become more likely. Assess the upper snowpack to observe for these slab properties. Cautious route finding is advised.

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

SUNDAY: Cloudy with light flurries, accumulation 5 to 15 cm, light southwesterly winds building to strong over the day, alpine temperature near -8 C, freezing level near valley bottom.MONDAY: Cloudy with light flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm, light southwesterly winds, alpine temperature near -6 C, freezing level near 1000 m.TUESDAY: Cloudy with light flurries, accumulation 10-15 cm, light to moderate southerly winds, alpine temperature dropping to -12 C over the day, freezing level near valley bottom.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous small loose avalanches have been reported in the region over the past few days.  Slab avalanches are becoming more likely with new snowfall, as the upper snowpack settles.

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of new snow fell on surface hoar in sheltered slopes and a sun crust on steep solar aspects and may not bond well to them.  The snow also may have fallen with moderate southwesterly winds in the alpine, which could have produced small wind slabs in lee features.The new snow could create a dangerous slab above buried weak layers.  Numerous persistent weak layers exist deeper in the snowpack.  Dry snow overlies two layers composed of weak and feathery surface hoar, with the deeper layer (December 15) buried 30 to 60 cm.  This layer is shallower in the north of the region and deeper in the south of the region.  The weak layer is found most often at treeline and below treeline.  If the dry snow above the weak layers becomes more cohesive and forms a slab, the setup has the potential to create easily-triggerable destructive slab avalanches.Deeper in the snowpack at depths of about 70 to 100 cm, a rain crust from November is producing variable snowpack test results, from sudden fracture characters to no result.  This layer is considered dormant for now, but could be triggered where the snowpack is thin.Please share your observations through the Mountain Information Network.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.