Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Jan 17 – 18, 2018Parks Canada
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Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

Gusting winds and 10cm pulse of snow Wednesday night into Thursday has potential to increase the hazard. Monitor these effects accordingly.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Snow was redistributed into thin, spotty slabs in exposed areas. These slabs sit on freshly buried, weak facets and surface hoar in some areas. 

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–3
    Isolated slab avalanches to size 2 were reported by field teams on Monday. They were triggered by loose snow avalanches from the cliffs above and solar input.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Natural point release avalanches remain a concern particularly in terrain traps or confined gullies. Surface snow remains loosely consolidated and ripe for entraining snow if initiated. New snow next few days will add to this concern.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday will be cloudy with flurries, 5cm of snow, high of -4, 1600m freezing level, and 20-40km/hr SW winds.  Thursday will be flurries and 10cm of snow, -4 to -10, 20 gusting 60 km/hr SW winds.  Friday will bring clouds, sun, flurries, trace of new snow, -9 to -11 and 15-35 km/hr SW winds.

Snowpack Summary

10-15cm of snow from Jan 10 has blown into thin slabs TL and above. Although the mid-pack Dec 15 layer is a concern but has not been reactive in test profiles nor has it been linked to any avalanche activity in the Jasper area, we are monitoring it closely. There is a distinct crust (Nov 17) in the lower third of the snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

No patrol on Tuesday and nothing new reported. Yesterday with sun and warm air, a pulse of natural loose dry point releases were observed. They were mostly out of steep, solar facing terrain.

Confidence

Wind effect is extremely variable on Wednesday

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