Gusting winds and 10cm pulse of snow Wednesday night into Thursday has potential to increase the hazard. Monitor these effects accordingly.
Weather Forecast
Wednesday will be cloudy with flurries, 5cm of snow, high of -4, 1600m freezing level, and 20-40km/hr SW winds. Thursday will be flurries and 10cm of snow, -4 to -10, 20 gusting 60 km/hr SW winds. Friday will bring clouds, sun, flurries, trace of new snow, -9 to -11 and 15-35 km/hr SW winds.
Snowpack Summary
10-15cm of snow from Jan 10 has blown into thin slabs TL and above. Although the mid-pack Dec 15 layer is a concern but has not been reactive in test profiles nor has it been linked to any avalanche activity in the Jasper area, we are monitoring it closely. There is a distinct crust (Nov 17) in the lower third of the snowpack.
Avalanche Summary
No patrol on Tuesday and nothing new reported. Yesterday with sun and warm air, a pulse of natural loose dry point releases were observed. They were mostly out of steep, solar facing terrain.
Confidence
Wind effect is extremely variable on Wednesday
Problems
Loose Dry
Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Persistent Slabs
Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.