Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Jan 18 – 19, 2018Parks Canada
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Archived · expired 9 years ago

Avalanche danger

Fri
Sat
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Strong winds and the potential for heavy snowfall will change the landscape and increase the avalanche danger rapidly. New windslabs will be touchy, and the increased load may awaken midpack layers of concern.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–1.5
    New snow and moderate to strong SW winds will rapidly build new windslabs. Forecasted amounts are uncertain, and hazard will be directly related to the amount of snow that arrives.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    1–2
    Isolated slab avalanches to size 2 were reported by field teams on Monday. They were triggered by loose snow avalanches from the cliffs above and solar input. The concern is that additional load may increase activity on midpack weak layers.

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–1.5
    New snow landing on loose facets has the potential to entrain and create big sluffs.

Weather Forecast

Steady snowfall overnight on Wednesday, with models predicting anywhere from 6mm to 35mm through to Thursday evening with strong SW ridgetop winds. After this, precipitation is expected to taper, and winds to moderate.

Snowpack Summary

10-15cm of snow from Jan 10 has blown into thin slabs TL and above. Midpack is faceted with several distinct crusts in the mid to lower snowpack. There is a layer of concern (Dec 15) composed of facets and surface hoar that can be found down approximately 15-30cm. This layer has been active in isolated areas, producing slab avalanches to size 2.

Avalanche Summary

Limited visibility, but one report of a size 2 loose dry avalanche on Mt Wilson that originated in the alpine and ran 400m to the forest below.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Thursday

Regions covered