Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Mar 24 – 25, 2016Alberta Parks
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
1 · Low
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Highlights

A SPAW has been issued for the forecast region. The concern is the Jan 6th layer and the potential for large avalanches. In addition, we are expecting some convective flurries tomorrow. The danger may rise locally if we get a significant load.

Avalanche problems

  • Cornices

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    3–6
    With each flurry, cornices will grow and become increasingly delicate. Avoid any slope with cornice exposure. Including approaching cornices from above.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    2–5
    This layer has an additional load, and possibly fresh windslabs on top of it. It may become more reactive as it adjusts to the new snow and/or windloading. It also has the potential to step down to the deeper layers.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    3–6
    Despite being a widespread problem, this layer is variable in terms of its sensitivity. Until this layer flushes itself out, consider all big terrain to be touchy and primed for large avalanches. Avoid any large avalanche terrain!

Confidence

Moderate - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels will remain relatively low overnight. It should hover at 1300m for this evening and rise to 1900m by tomorrow morning. Convective flurries are in the forecast for tonight and tomorrow. We can expect up to 8cm's tonight. 2500m ridge winds will remain in the light to moderate range, peaking at 35km/hr from the west. Tomorrow's alpine high will be -4.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were seen today, however skies were obscured for most of the day.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15cm of new snow has fallen in higher areas and/or areas near the divide. The winds have been light enough to prevent any major wind effect, but immediate lees are likely to have storm slabs from wind transport. Expect these on all easterly aspects in the alpine. This new snow is also adding to the load on the persistent layers. The Feb 11th layer depth varies, but expect to find it anywhere from 30-60cm down. It is a significant crust on solar aspects and a subtle density change on the polar aspects. There are also a number of other crusts present on solar aspects and low elevation non-polar aspects. The Jan 6th layer also varies in depth. In deeper areas it can be down as much as 1.8m, and in shallow areas it can be down as little as 40cm. Below treeline, heat has made for generally crusty conditions. The only exception is in shady areas, where the snowpack is weak still. Snow depths are: Burstall Pass 189cm & Mud Lake 117cm.

Regions covered