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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 5th, 2017–Jan 6th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Good skiing is becoming hard to find. Sheltered areas at treeline are the best bet for decent snow. It is out there...it just takes some searching.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries tomorrow. Alpine low of -18. Winds will be westerly and up to 20km/hr.

Avalanche Summary

We saw three avalanches today. All in the alpine on east aspects and up to sz 2.5. Interestingly, they were all mid slope and in skiable terrain.

Snowpack Summary

A visit to some of our more remote weather plots today helped to give a more regional perspective on the snowpack. Below treeline is still the same as its been for the last while. Weak snow makes for difficult travel and poor coverage in terms of depth. On the up side, there are very few avalanche concerns! Depths range from 50cm-95cm.Treeline is variable these days for coverage and avalanche problems. Lower treeline suffers from the same weak snow/poor coverage issue. At the upper end of treeline the 10-30cm thick surface windslabs are present in open areas and vary in density. Hardslabs are common in windy areas and don't inspire confidence for ski quality or avalanches. The Dec 18th facet layer is prominent in all areas. It is down 30-50cm with a distinct density change. Lower down, the Nov crust layer is intact and still quite solid as a layer, but we are seeing depth hoar on top of it in most areas now. The alpine is essentially the same as treeline, but more variable. Wind exposure is the thing to keep in mind when predicting the hardslab locations. One common theme was the rapid change from feature to feature. In a few steps, the snowpack character changes considerably.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.