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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 30th, 2016–Mar 31st, 2016

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Jasper.

Clear skies and warm temperatures are forecast and with them a rapid and dangerous increase in avalanche activity. Stick to shallow angles with no overhead hazard.

Weather Forecast

The North Westerly flow will continue as a body of warm air from the Pacific approaches. The freezing level (FL) overnight will not drop much below zero at treeline elevation and below allowing the snowpack to keep its heat. On Thursday and Friday FL will increasing to 2700m. With clear skies for Thursday the air and snowpack will rapidly heat up.

Snowpack Summary

Temperature crusts will loose their strength over the next few days with poor overnight recovery. Greater snowpack depths exists closer to the Icefields which offer more support and add strength to the snowpack. Several weaknesses persist in the lower portion of the snowpack and cornices are large. The snow at ground level is  very weak.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity will reach dangerous levels by mid afternoon if the weather forecasts holds true.  Cornices can be expected to collapse and are are of sufficient size to trigger large avalanches.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday

Problems

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.

Cornices

Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind drifts of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.