Wet loose avalanches can be expected at lower elevations if rain arrives in the valley bottom.
Weather Forecast
Under the influence of a Westerly flow, the daytime freezing level will extend to 2,000 m with up to 10 cm of snow above and rain below. Overnight temperatures will drop below freezing above 1,500 m.
Snowpack Summary
A rain crust can be found from the valley bottom to 2,350m. New snow wind slabs from 2,000m extended into the alpine. Moist and wet snow can be found below the crust extending into the alpine on solar aspects. On Northerly slopes the midpack is solid but warming up. New snow clings to steep rocks above 2,350m above which are large cornices.
Avalanche Summary
Avalanche control on the 23rd produced size 1-2 soft slabs at 2200m sliding on a rain crust. At that time two cornice failures producing size 3's on steep unskiable terrain (Cromwell and Boundary peak). On the 24th, under mostly cloudy skies , several wet point release avalanches from steep rocky SW facing alpine terrain were observed.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain on Friday
Problems
Storm Slabs
Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.