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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 11th, 2019–Dec 12th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Northwest Inland.

Low danger doesn't mean no danger. Use caution in steep and open terrain if there's new snow and wind.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainties in both the snowpack structure and the weather forecast limit our confidence.

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Scattered flurries with 2-4 cm of snow, 30 km/h wind from the south, alpine temperatures drop to -10 C.

THURSDAY: Scattered flurries throughout the day with 5-10 cm of new snow, 40 km/h wind from the south, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.

FRIDAY: Isolated flurries with up to 5 cm of snow, light wind from the west, alpine high temperatures around -6 C.

SATURDAY: Mostly cloudy, 30 km/h wind from the northwest, alpine high temperatures around -10 C.

Avalanche Summary

MIN reports from the weekend suggest there has been minimal avalanche activity over the past week. No significant activity is expected until sufficient snow buries the surface hoar layer that formed over the past week.

Snowpack Summary

Light accumulations of snow over the next few days will bury a concerning layer of surface hoar that has formed in areas sheltered from the wind (see photos from this MIN report). While the short-term forecast doesn't call for enough snow to form a slab above this layer, thin slabs could possibly form in wind affected terrain. Reports suggest this surface hoar layer can be found on all aspects up to treeline elevations. In the alpine, new snow will bury hard wind slabs and sun crusts on south-facing terrain. Snowpack depths are 50-100 cm in alpine areas around Smithers, with depths diminishing rapidly below 1500 m. The relatively thin snowpack has likely caused soft weak snow to form near the ground, however triggering an avalanche on weak basal snow is unlikely under the current conditions.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.