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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 30th, 2019–Dec 31st, 2019

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

South Coast.

A strong storm will impact the mountains on Tuesday creating very dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid travelling on steep slopes and minimize exposure to overhead hazard.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Cloudy, 20-30 cm of snow, moderate southwest winds, alpine temperatures around 2 C, with freezing levels near 1100 m.

Tuesday: Cloudy, 40-60 cm of snow becoming rain in the late afternoon, strong southwest winds, alpine high temperatures around 2 C with freezing levels rising to 1800 m in late afternoon.

Wednesday: Cloudy, 20-30 cm of snow, moderate west winds, alpine high temperatures near 0 C with freezing level dropping below 1000 m.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, 3-5 cm of snow, light northwest winds, alpine high temperatures near 0 C, freezing level dropping below 500 m.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region. 

The incoming storm is expected to initiate a natural avalanche cycle on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

The incoming storm will add a new layer to our snowpack that is expected to become rapidly unstable as snow accumulates and transitions to rain.

The snow that fell over the weekend is now well settled with a strong bond to the previous surface. Snowpack depths near treeline range from 150-200 cm, and the snowpack diminishes rapidly with elevation.

Terrain and Travel

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • The first few hours of rain will likely be the most dangerous period.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.