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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 13th, 2015–Feb 14th, 2015

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Mt Hood.

It is a stretch to find a primary avalanche problem Saturday, but some sunshine later in the day, may make shallow wet snow avalanches possible. 

Detailed Forecast

A few showers early Saturday should give way to mostly cloudy conditions later Saturday and cooler temperatures. The cooler temperatures should limit melt and weakening of surface snow and may allow surface snow and form a crust at upper elevations. This should limit the potential for wet snow avalanches. 

Loose wet avalanches are unlikely Saturday due to the cooling, some some shallow wet snow may persist.    

As a result of the overall low snowpack, especially below treeline, watch for terrain hazards such as open creeks, partially covered rocks and vegetation.

Snowpack Discussion

The latest warm and moist southwesterly flow to impact the Pacific Northwest brought less rain to Mt. Hood compared to areas in the WA Cascades late last week. This led to further overall snowpack melt at lower elevations.   

The last frontal system crossed the south Cascades late Monday. This caused strong winds and heavy snow in the above treeline zone at Mt Hood.

A cooling storm Monday through early Tuesday deposited 15 inches of new snow at 6600 feet at Mt Hood Meadows. Avalanche control gave numerous size 1-2 wind and storm slab avalanches on lee slopes but with limited propagation. Similar wind slab concerns were reported on lee east aspects west of Timberline Tuesday on the NWAC observation page.  

These storm and wind slabs quickly stabilized under warming temperatures and sunshine and no other storm avalanches have been reported over the past few days. 

The mid and lower snowpack at Mt Hood should consist of layers of stable consolidated rounded grains or melt forms and crusts from multiple warm periods this winter.

Problems

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.