There will be some recovery of the snowpack tonight. This recovery may not last long if the sun comes out, or the air temps rise above expected values.
Confidence
Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday
Weather Forecast
Things will refreeze tonight with an overnight low of -4 at 2500m. The winds will calm a bit, but still clock in at 40-60km/hr. Tomorrow will be a mix of sun and cloud with a treeline high of -1. Winds will continue to settle down to 30km/hr. Freezing level will be 2100m. Needless to say, no snow is in the forecast for tomorrow. Saturday on the other hand, MAY see 15mm of precip. How much of it comes as rain is yet to be seen. Stay tuned.
Avalanche Summary
Isolated loose dry avalanches noted on steep south
Snowpack Summary
The entire forecast region has been basking in the sun and enjoying unusually warm temps for the past 28hrs. The region's hot spot today was Mud Lake with 6 degrees. The valley bottom snowpack is now isothermal in most areas, up to 2200m. The "winter" snowpack does not return until treeline where there is a moist surface layer sitting on top of dry facets up to 2300m. Daytime highs at treeline hit 3 degrees today with overnight lows of +1. The alpine snowpack is more variable. The effects of the sun and heat are more pronounced on south aspects, but even the north aspects have seen some heat. There was intense transport at the upper elevations. Cornices are soaking up the warm temps and becoming a potential problem.
Problems
Loose Wet
Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.
Deep Persistent Slabs
Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.