Avalanche forecast

Kananaskis

Mar 15 – 16, 2015Alberta Parks
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Archived · expired 12 years ago

Avalanche danger

Tue
Wed
Alpine
4 · High
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

A heavy snowfall warning has been issued for the region. If the forecast comes true, danger levels will rise to HIGH due to recent storm slab development. Keep an eye on localized snowfall amounts.

Avalanche problems

  • Loose Dry

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely
    Size
    1–2
    Sluffing can be expected in steep terrain as heavy snowfalls continue.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Likely - Very Likely
    Size
    2–4
    By Monday morning storm snow totals could reach 45cm. If this occurs slabs will be very sensitive to triggering especially where they overlie previously formed crusts (such as solar aspects).

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely
    Size
    2–5
    The basal weak layers remain a concern and could "wake up" with the new load of snow forecast for Sunday night. Shallow snowpack areas are particularly concerning in this respect.

Avalanche Summary

Nothing was observed or reported today, but observations were very limited due to poor visibility. It is expected that a natural avalanche cycle will begin late Sunday or early Monday in the alpine and at treeline.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

A heavy snowfall warning is in effect for the region and a further 30cm of snow is possible by late Monday morning. Temperatures will be near -5 celsius at ridgetop on Monday with a clearing trend towards the end of the day. Winds are expected to be light and variable.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 15cm of snow has fallen at treeline over the past 36hrs. This snow has now buried crusts on steep solar aspects at all elevations. On Saturday strong SW winds formed thin storm slabs in lee and cross-loaded terrain in alpine and treeline areas, but further storm slab development slowed down on Sunday. Much of the precipitation fell as rain at lower elevations on Saturday and temperatures dropped overnight. A new rain crust now exists at lower elevations with a small amount of new snow sitting on top.

Regions covered