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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 15th, 2013–Mar 16th, 2013

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Warm temps persist!  Lower elevations are isothermal in many places.  Watch for large cornices looming overhead.

Confidence

Good

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels are forecast to begin to drop on Saturday but not until later in the day.  Cloudy conditions will persist overnight so we expect there to only be a minimal "re-freeze" of the snowpack over the next 24hrs.  Light snow will begin to fall when the cooler air arrives but snowfall amounts are not expected to be that significant.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous loose wet slides were observed below treeline up to sz 1.  Also one sz 3 avalanche was observed on the Nestor slide paths that had a fracture depth of over 1m and was close to 300m wide.  This slide ran from "dry" alpine terrain into the below treeline moist isothermal snowpack.  A few other isolated avalanches up to sz two caused by cornice collapses were also observed.

Snowpack Summary

Moist isothermal snowpack below 1900m throughout the region.  Top 40cm of snowpack moist up to 2200m.  Above 2200m snowpack is still wintery in most places.  The 0303 temperature crust is present on all solar aspects up to 3000m and now has about 40cm of snow overlying it that seems well bonded.  Skiing is rugged.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.