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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2014–Mar 15th, 2014

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Kananaskis.

Watch for decreases in stability if the sun comes out on Saturday.  On Sunday a storm is forecast to cross the region giving us 30cm of new snow and moderate to strong winds out of the SW.

Confidence

Good - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

Temperatures are forecast to cool overnight but on Saturday, clear-ish skies are forecast so we can expect there to be decreases in stability on solar aspects later in the day when/if the sun comes out.  Late saturday a storm is forecast to track across the region giving us up to 30cm of new snow by Sunday afternoon with strong westerly winds. 

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche observations.

Snowpack Summary

Most Alpine areas are wind affected with windward slopes stripped bare and lee slopes full of hard slabs. At treeline the 0211 interface is down 70-100cm and producing moderate to hard shears.  Most areas below 200m there is a thin temperature crust but while on solar aspects there is a thick temperature crust up to the peaks.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.