Avalanche forecast

Purcells

Feb 13, 2019Avalanche Canada
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Archived · expired 8 years ago

Avalanche danger

Thu
Fri
Alpine
2 · Moderate
Treeline
2 · Moderate
Below
2 · Moderate
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Highlights

Wind slabs may be touchy on all aspects in exposed terrain. There has also been recent large human-triggered avalanches and other signs of instability on buried surface hoar layers. See our Forecaster Blog for more info here.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2
    New wind slabs have likely formed with recent southerly winds. Wind slabs from the weekend developed with northerly winds. Wind slabs may therefore be touchy on all aspects and at all elevation bands.

  • Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1.5–2.5
    Two weak layers of surface hoar crystals are buried between 30 and 60 cm in the snowpack. The layers are most prominent around treeline and below treeline elevations. Skiers have recently triggered large avalanches on these layers.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Unlikely - Possible
    Size
    2.5–3.5
    Particularly in thin snowpack areas, the base of the snowpack is composed of weak faceted grains and a crust. This layer has produced sporadic but very large avalanches. The probability of triggering this layer is low, but the consequences very high.

Weather Forecast

TUESDAY Night: Mainly cloudy with flurries, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -14 CWEDNESDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks, light southwest wind, alpine temperature -13 C.THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, light southeast wind, alpine temperature -10 C.FRIDAY: Flurries, accumulation 5-10 cm , light southwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C

Confidence

High -

Avalanche Summary

A few large wind slab avalanches were observed in the region on Sunday, generally in alpine terrain and up to 60 cm deep. Otherwise, cornices were reactive to explosive control.The January persistent weak layers described in the Snowpack Summary continue to be reactive to human triggers. The most recent activity was on Friday, as skiers triggered large avalanches on east and southeast slopes between 1900 and 2300 m. Check out the MIN reports here, here and here for examples of these weaknesses.

Snowpack Summary

Recent strong winds from all directions have affected the snow surface at all elevation bands. Expect to find wind slabs in terrain depressions, such as adjacent to ridges, and otherwise wind affected snow on all aspects.Beneath this lies two weak layers of surface hoar that were buried at the end of January and mid-January. These layers are around 30 to 60 cm deep. The mid-January layer may be associated with a melt-freeze crust on southerly aspects. These layers are most prominent at treeline and below treeline elevations.The base of the snowpack is composed of weak and sugary faceted grains that overly a melt-freeze crust. This weak layer has produced large and destructive avalanches that are sporadic in nature and very difficult to predict. It is most likely to be triggered from areas where the snowpack is shallow and weak. Rocky alpine bowls, ridge crests, and rocky outcroppings are some examples of terrain features to be wary of. See the Forecaster Blog here for more info on this problem.

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