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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 3rd, 2019–Mar 4th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Purcells.

The region holds a tricky mix of long-lived wind slab and persistent slab problems, with new snow instabilities to manage in the southwest of the region. Be mindful of how this mix changes by elevation and by location.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

Sunday night: Mainly clear. Light east winds.Monday: Sunny. Light east winds. Alpine high temperatures around -12.Tuesday: Sunny with cloudy periods. Light east or southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around -10.Wednesday: Mainly cloudy with isolated flurries and a trace of new snow. Light east or southeast winds. Alpine high temperatures around -9.

Avalanche Summary

Observations from the past couple of days included several storm slab releases to size 1.5 in an area of the southwest of the region that saw 25 cm of new snow from localized convective snowfall. Loose dry releases to size 1 were also observed, owing to the low density character of the new snow. Two 40-60 cm deep persistent slab avalanches were also observed on south and west aspects at around 2400 metres.On Wednesday, numerous natural wind slab avalanches up to size 2 and several human triggered size 1-1.5 releases were reported on primarily south aspects at treeline and above. Here is a link to a video of an avalanche that occurred last week in the Purcells. Great footage that illustrates the current wind slab problem in the region.Reports of persistent slab avalanches are becoming less frequent, suggesting it has evolved into a lower likelihood but still high consequence avalanche problem that requires discipline and careful terrain selection to manage effectively.

Snowpack Summary

Limited areas toward the southwest of the region received up to 25 cm of new snow on Thursday. This new snow likely overlies sun crust on sun-exposed aspects. Below any new snow, strong ridge-top winds (most recently from the northeast) have created wind slabs on all aspects at upper elevations. These wind slabs have shown prolonged reactivity because of the faceted (weak, sugary snow) they overlie.Lower down there are two layers of surface hoar (weak, feathery crystals) that were buried at the end of January and mid-January. These layers are around 30 to 80 cm deep and are most prominent at lower elevations - especially below treeline. The surface hoar may sit on a crust on south facing slopes in specific locations, which is a dangerous combination.The base of the snowpack is composed of weak and sugary faceted grains that sit on a crust. This weak layer has produced large and destructive avalanches that are sporadic in nature and difficult to predict. See the Forecasters' Blog here for more information on this problem. Continued cold temperatures have been progressively weakening the basal snowpack.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Deep Persistent Slabs

Deep Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a thick cohesive layer of hard snow (a slab), when the bond breaks between the slab and an underlying persistent weak layer deep in the snowpack. The most common persistent weak layers involved in deep, persistent slabs are depth hoar or facets surrounding a deeply buried crust. Deep Persistent Slabs are typically hard to trigger, are very destructive and dangerous due to the large mass of snow involved, and can persist for months once developed. They are often triggered from areas where the snow is shallow and weak, and are particularly difficult to forecast for and manage.