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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Mar 14th, 2019–Mar 15th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Sea To Sky.

Seek out cold dry snow on higher elevation north and east aspects but watch for wind slabs which remain sensitive to triggering. The sun could produce loose wet avalanches on unshaded slopes, especially in the afternoon.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain on Friday

Weather Forecast

Friday offers one last day of temperatures on the cool side before the heat really comes on for the first time this season. THURSDAY NIGHT: Freezing level around 800 m, light to moderate west/southwest wind, 1 to 3 cm of snow possible.FRIDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level rising to 1500 m, light southwest wind, no precipitation expected.SATURDAY: Broken cloud cover, freezing level rising to 1800 m, light southwest wind, no significant precipitation expected.SUNDAY: A few clouds, freezing level approaching 3000 m, light variable wind, no precipitation expected.

Avalanche Summary

Wednesday was an active day for avalanche activity. Loose wet releases were common on steep solar aspects to size 2. This MIN from Decker Meadows does a great job of showing just how quickly the very strong spring sun can produce avalanches with some great photos and a positive outcome. We suspect activity like that described in this MIN will probably pick up over the next few days as the region warms considerably. A size 2 natural wind slab avalanche was reported from a north facing feature at 1900 m. A size 1 remote triggered storm slab avalanche was also reported from a north facing feature between 2200 and 2000 m.Small loose wet avalanches were reported on Tuesday on south-facing slopes. There was also a size 1.5 remote-triggered avalanche reported at 1400 m.During the previous storm, there was an avalanche cycle to size 2.5. Operators noted some avalanches showed wide propagations.

Snowpack Summary

Another 15-20 cm new snow added to previous amounts to give storm totals in the range of 30-50 cm. Towards the end of the storm, winds shifted to the north, potentially creating some unusual wind slabs on south-facing slopes. Beneath the recent snow you may find hard wind-affected snow at higher elevations, soft faceted snow in shaded and sheltered areas, and crusts on steep southerly slopes. The middle and lower snowpack is well-settled.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Wet

Loose Wet avalanches are the release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry Avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.