Avalanche Forecast

Light to locally moderate new snow received through Monday afternoon should accumulate at relatively cool and stable snow levels. 

Be wary of unstable layers created during periods of rapid accumulation Monday that would make shallow wind or storm slabs more likely to trigger. Overall the potential for loose wet avalanches will decrease Monday and be confined to the lower elevations of the below treeline band and to steeper solar aspects that receive sunbreaks. Wind slabs are possible at higher elevations but will not be specially listed following this storm cycle. 

Cornices formed over the last week may still be weak from the recent mild weather so be aware of the overhead hazard and give cornices a wide berth while traveling along ridgelines. 

Non-avalanche hazard: Despite our seasonally, healthy snowpack, many creeks are open and difficult to cross due to the periodic warm temperatures and rain events.

Weather and Snowpack

The last week has been wet and relatively mild with a series of active fronts transiting the region resulting in fluctuating freezing levels and periods of very strong winds. The heaviest snowfall and precipitation occurred late Sunday 2/28 and Tuesday 3/1. The latter half of the week including the weekend has featured more rain than snow at NWAC sites along the west slopes. For perspective, the averaged freezing level measured in March thus far has been 5700 ft at Forks (Washington Coast) and 6400 ft at Spokane. When the average freezing levels are warmer on the east side of the Cascades versus the west side, that bodes poorly for the influence of cool easterly flow and freezing levels along the west slopes including the Passes become more aligned with the average Forks freezing level. 

Mid and lower elevations have seen natural, loose-wet avalanches most days as radiation increases in early March or during rain events. Particularly in the Mt. Baker area, unsupported slabs continue to sporadically release during extended stretches of mild temperatures and rainfall resulting in glide avalanches in very specific terrain features like steep rock faces.

The mid and lower snow pack along the west slopes should generally be a stable mix of crusts and layers of moist and rounded snow crystals.

Recent Observations

From Wednesday through Friday of last week periods of sunshine along with significant daytime warming caused numerous natural loose wet avalanches on steep aspects, mostly below about 4500-5000 feet, seen in the Alpental Valley and the Mt Baker backcountry.

Locally heavy rain at the Mt. Baker area led to sensitive loose wet ski cuts by the Mt. Baker pro-patrol early Saturday morning. A natural loose wet cycle was observed in the Bagley Lakes area and one glide avalanche in unsupported terrain released nearby. Also in the Baker area, another glide avalanche occurred Saturday night off Shuskan arm entraining moist surface snow and becoming very large while running to the valley bottom.