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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Nov 27th, 2014–Nov 28th, 2014

Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Treeline
Natural and human triggered avalanches likely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.

Regions

Glacier.

The Winter Permit System is now in effect. We are in the middle of a major storm. Avoid exposure to avalanche terrain.

Weather Forecast

A warm, Pacific storm hit us overnight and continues. Another 20-30cm is expected today with moderate southerly winds increasing loading rates. Freezing levels are forecast to rise, but will hopefully stay below Rogers Pass (1300m). On Friday, snowfall will start to taper off as cold, arctic air moves in. Temp's will plummet overnight to -28'C.

Snowpack Summary

Two layers of concern, the Nov 21 surface hoar/sun crust layer down ~ 90 and Nov 9 rain crust down ~110cm, are becoming reactive as the load on top of them increases. Snowpack tests in two locations, a south aspect and a north aspect, showed that these layers may be triggered by skiers and if triggered are likely to propagate into large avalanches.

Avalanche Summary

Avalanche activity started overnight with rapid loading by heavy snowfall and moderate winds. It's still too dark out to fully assess, but avalanches to size 3 were observed overnight. These were running well into the avalanche runout zones.

Confidence

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.

Loose Dry

Loose Dry avalanches are the release of dry unconsolidated snow and typically occur within layers of soft snow near the surface of the snowpack. These avalanches start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. Other names for loose-dry avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs.