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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Feb 15th, 2017–Feb 16th, 2017

Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.

Regions

Glacier.

Warm temperatures, moderate winds and precipitation in the form of snow/rain coming today.  Conservative route selection is prudent today.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy with flurries and potentially 5cm accumulation.  Wind SW in the moderate range is forecast and a freezing level of 1800m.  Another 16cm is expected tonight through Tuesday along with moderate S-SW winds. 

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow continues to settle assisted by mild temperatures. Solar aspect surfaces into the alpine will have become moist and possibly refrozen in the last 24hrs. S-SW moderate winds will have formed windslab in the immediate lee of ridge lines. Weak layers have been observed 25 and 60cm down. This includes Jan 25 suncrust on steep solar aspects.

Avalanche Summary

A dozen moist avalanches to size 2.5 were observed along the highway corridor mainly releasing on steep solar aspects. A size 2 solar released slide was observed on the SE aspect of Ross Peak yesterday morning before 10am.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Persistent Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) in the middle to upper snowpack, when the bond to an underlying persistent weak layer breaks. Persistent layers include: surface hoar, depth hoar, near-surface facets, or faceted snow. Persistent weak layers can continue to produce avalanches for days, weeks or even months, making them especially dangerous and tricky. As additional snow and wind events build a thicker slab on top of the persistent weak layer, this avalanche problem may develop into a Deep Persistent Slab.

Wind Slabs

Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.