A warm, intense storm system is headed our way. This will be a rapid change and will be a shock to the cold snowpack. Freezing levels are expected to stay at valley bottom, but danger will rise very quickly if the snow turns to rain.
Weather Forecast
Today expect a mostly cloudy day with isolated flurries and an alpine high of -5'C. The storm front is expected to arrive late in the day with up to 25cm expected overnight and increasing SW winds. On Tuesday expect another 20cm with freezing levels rising to 1200m. By Wednesday freezing levels are forecast to rise to 1700m with another 15cm.
Snowpack Summary
Thin windslabs exist at ridgecrest and on lee features in the alpine, and have occasionally have been reactive on unsupported features. Cold temps have facetted the surface snow and broken down old windslabs in many areas. A new surface hoar layer up to size 6 has grown at treeline and below, but are smaller at higher elevations.
Avalanche Summary
Recent natural avalanche activity has been limited to steep, unskiable terrain. Skiers reported sluffing of the weak facetted snow when skiing steep terrain.
Confidence
Timing of incoming weather systems is uncertain
Problems
Wind Slabs
Wind Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer of snow (a slab) formed by the wind. Wind typically transports snow from the upwind sides of terrain features and deposits snow on the downwind side. Wind slabs are often smooth and rounded and sometimes sound hollow, and can range from soft to hard. Wind slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.